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Baseball Is Back!

The other day, the Major League Baseball season鈥攐r, rather, 鈥渟eason,鈥 given that it鈥檚 60 games; given that instead of ten teams making the playoffs, sixteen will, which is more than half the league; that every extra inning starts with a runner on 2nd base, which is very weird; and, obviously, COVID protocols and a 60-man taxi squad for dudes who test positive鈥攌icked off. The first game was rained out. Because of course. 2020!

But the first weekend was almost a success! Baseball was played, playoff odds shifted, Flaherty flourished, the Cards won two and then lost, and Ohtani got ROCKED. Which broke my heart. Watching Otahni and Trout at the top of their games is a gift to baseball fans everywhere.

Given how awful this summer is (I just remembered earlier today and am now playing it to death), baseball, this never-ending, not very popular game that鈥檚 being played with no fans鈥攚ell, there are plastic/cardboard(?) cut-out fans in some stadiums, totally mis-sized, the things of nightmare, and, unfortunately, sturdy, depriving all of us of the joy of seeing Joey Gallo decapitate some dude鈥檚 dog鈥攃ould be my only real joy until . . . God only knows. But as much as I鈥檓 willing to overlook in order to at least have baseball, there is some weird shit that deserves attention.

 

On Friday night鈥檚 Cardinals vs Pirates game, in the top of the fourth inning, there was a man on first and Bryan Reynolds hit a grounder to Kolten Wong, who flipped it to Paul DeJong, getting Kevin Newman at second before . . . DeJong swallowed the throw to first. This in and of itself is not particularly noteworthy, but the 鈥渃rowd鈥 response definitely was. As the play started, there was a rush of enthusiasm鈥”perfect double play ball!鈥濃攁nd when DeJong didn鈥檛 even throw over, a sort of disappointed sigh鈥’why didn鈥檛 you complete the great play, ya bum!!!鈥濃攖hat, assuming DeJong could hear it, was judgmental as fuck.

It would be bad enough if these were actual fans, but they鈥檙e not! No one is in the stands watching the actual game. The fans are at home, with their iPads and big TVs, having their assessment of DeJong鈥檚 defensive abilities swayed by the fake crowd blasting through earbuds.

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The thing about baseball, the number one reason I like it, is because every single aspect of the game is difficult. Throwing a baseball so incredibly fast, or with such movement, that a grown man with a bat鈥攚ho has hit tens of thousands of baseballs in his life鈥攚ill miss it enough times that he strikes out seems impossible. (The season with the most strike outs ever was last year, 2019, with 42,823.)

The idea of hitting a ball鈥攂e it a 95 mph fastball, letters high, or a slider gliding across the plate at 82鈥攕eems equally impossible. Even in the 鈥済ood old days,鈥 hitting .350 was an incredible feat鈥攎eaning you still failed almost two-thirds of the time. (The most homeruns in a season was last year, with 6,776, a whopping 671 more than the previous record. That鈥檚 approximate a 10% increase in the record.)

Fielding isn鈥檛 very fun either. Not that players don鈥檛 mostly succeed at this鈥攖here are players who have a lifetime fielding percentage above 99%, the league as a whole was at .985 in 2013, and that鈥檚 normal鈥攂ut every time a player 诲辞别蝉苍鈥檛 make a play, the crowd reacts as if they aren鈥檛 doing a nearly impossible task every other time a ball comes their way. Watch a MLB player dive for a ball at third, get up, and throw out a world-class athlete sprinting down the line and then imagine yourself in that situation. Imagine tracking a ball that goes a couple hundred feet in the air and covers 350 feet on the ground. It鈥檚 easier than anything else I鈥檝e mentioned, but definitely not easy. Nor is stealing bases! It鈥檚 all hard!

Which creates such a beautiful equilibrium. Everything that happens in a game feels equally unlikely.

*

It鈥檚 hard to go back to playing MLB The Show now that real baseball is here. I鈥檝e fallen into a very weird uncanny valley, in which I鈥檓 not 100% sure which game is real. When I鈥檓 watching live, I鈥檓 calling pitches in my mind, and feeling my finger twitch as the ball approaches the plate. Goldschmidt鈥檚 homerun from the other day was one that almost caused me to convulse on the couch as I jumped on that pitch with the maximum effort I give to every ball I swing at in my video game life. I鈥檓 way too absorbed into this game. (Thank you, quarantine!) I鈥檝e been trained into its rhythms, the generalized likelihood of what鈥檚 coming next, and the exact nanosecond to hit the correct button.

(On the other side of the valley, I recently warmed up my least reliable relief pitcher in the 6th inning of a game, hoping to piss off Video Game Adam Wainwright and motivate him on the mound. Again, in a videogame. One in which I personally control a significant portion of his success.)

But I鈥檓 a game and a half in front of the Cubs, heading into the final part of August! This is the most exciting time for baseball. The time when the background noise that has colored your entire summer鈥攚in streaks, impressive player accomplishments, so, so many homeruns, surprise rookies and struggling giants鈥攕tarts to feel a bit anxious. The end is coming. Summer 诲辞别蝉苍鈥檛 last forever. (Although this summer is lasting forever, never becoming summer, and never becoming something you want to remember forever.) If you want a few more games, a little bit more adrenaline and hope and worry, something to distract you for one more month, you need to hit the gas right fucking now.

In this video game. Where it鈥檚 the end of August.

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Sure, the 60-game season is a 鈥渟print,鈥 and I kind of totally love it, since the stakes seem so much higher for each individual game, but it鈥檚 not nearly the same as being incredibly invested in the final 40 games after a 122 game grind. By this point, statistics have stabilized; everyone on the field has a plan on how to approach each other. Winning in September is winning when teams have the most knowledge about how to defeat individual tendencies. It鈥檚 not a fully mental game, baseball, but it鈥檚 a game in which, since its inception, people have been trying to drill down to figure out the essential question: 鈥淚n this game of mostly failure, why did this 飞辞谤办?鈥

You can start by looking at how often a player misses a 2-seamer in a particular part of the plate. How often he swings at them. What trajectory those pitches tended to have when he missed vs. when he made contact. What the likelihood is that this particular pitch will help our team win the game? And how can we leverage all of this information to win 56% of the time. (Slightly higher than a Vegas casino, but really, winning 56% of the time feels almost abusive in its inconstancy.)

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What if instead of focusing on how the three true outcomes (strike out, walk, donger) are ruining the game of baseball by eliminating balls in play, we framed it as how the three tough accomplishments (dinger, whiff, making a catch) were elevating the difficulty of the sport?

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Please don鈥檛 let the fuck this up for everyone. Seriously. How could half your team鈥攁nd only your team鈥攇et the COVID?? God damn Florida. You wonder why you鈥檙e the butt of all the jokes.

But seriously: I need this. In a year in which all the seasonal, time-based rituals of our 鈥渘ormal鈥 existence have been completely and utterly annihilated, having one thing to count on鈥攕ixty games in seventy days鈥攆eels monumental. Finding a routine in COVID has both been easy and insanely difficult. Easy if you indulge in the sloth, in the shuffling off of productivity, and instead embrace the feeling that the world is slowly shutting down, that none of this is really real.

But now there鈥檚 baseball!

Surreal, almost unreal baseball, but something to watch, to follow, to refresh. A genuine distraction. A new way to monitor the passing of time.

*

The relationship between baseball and time is so fascinating. 鈥淭he only sport without a clock,鈥 as the old timer broadcasts like to say over the radio. Which is true, but also a bit of an illusion, since the majority of games end within 10-15 minutes of one another.

To be honest, most games last about three-and-a-half hours. Which, to many, seems interminable! Soccer and basketball are around two hours each, whereas football is, in my best estimation, about 14 hours per half.

But going back to baseball: sixty three-and-a-half hour games produces 210 hours of entertainment鈥攆or just your team. Thanks to the way the schedule is arranged, if you really wanted to, you could watch three games a day, which, including your team鈥檚 off days, could conceivable add up to watching 735 hours of live baseball over the next two months. That鈥檚 seventy-three ten-episode Netflix shows. A ton of content.

But also exceedingly finite.

Even when we look at a full, 鈥渞egular鈥 season, the perceived endlessness of the baseball season is quickly codified into very specific, countable numbers. In a normal summer, barring injury, you know that 鈥測our guys鈥 will get about 聽620+ at bats over the course of these six months (that鈥檚 one hundred and three times a month you could watch or hear your favorite player bat, or, roughly 3.5 times a day).

That might seem like a lot鈥攊f you鈥檙e counting COVID sheep, you definitely don鈥檛 want to get to 620鈥攂ut still, spread out like that over six months, it feels like Trout is rarely actually batting. Maybe he鈥檚 at the dish for 10-12 minutes a night. Again, extremely finite.

And by the end of the summer, your average star will have accumulated 130-150 hits, maybe 30 homeruns, a handful (or couple dozen) steals. Numbers that are remarkable in how pedestrian they are. For as long as any given game might seem鈥攐r, in the aggregate, the an endless summer鈥檚 worth of baseball鈥擨 can count to one hundred and fifty. That鈥檚 not that many times that a player was successful. Hell, I can probably even count to 150 over the course of a single at bat!

*

The timelessness of baseball is an illusion we鈥檝e chosen to believe in. We want it to be super long, in which every individual play is tempered by thousands of others, so that the data we can strip from the events themselves becomes stable, predictable. We believe in a 162-game season being long enough to eliminate flukes and small sample sizes, thus rewarding the best, smartest, most talented鈥攁nd, cough, lucky鈥攖eams in the game.

And if there鈥檚 one other core attribute to baseball, it鈥檚 that traditionalists will always be desire the past. Back when there was no DH in the National League. When no one wore batting gloves, and only the top two teams made the playoffs. The grass smelled better back then, apple pie was always on the counter, and everyone stood for the National Anthem.

God, I hate this sort of nostalgia. All this garbage feels like a false narrative constructed to get away with excessive ticket prices, questionable business practices (playing in the time of a pandemic, FOR EXAMPLE), and generally uncouth behavior. It鈥檚 such an illusion. That time is past. And will never be recovered. Entropy always wins. Or, put in a more positive light, all the traditions, the old systems, that are immutable? Well, they鈥檙e totally mutable. And if baseball can accept a 60-game season with a 16-team wacky playoff structure, what else can tumble once we stop accepting these illusions without question?



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